SPECIAL ARTICLE

New Delhi, 9 August 2007

Emergency in Pakistan?

IS IT HEADING FOR A CIVIL WAR?

By Sreedhar

In fact, the developments in Pakistan from the beginning of this year is making many analysts take a dim view of the country and its future is once again being described as a ‘failed state’ and ‘failing state’.

At one level, the President started a dialogue with exiled political leaders like Benazir Bhutto. The meeting between General Musharraf and Benazir in Abu Dhabi under the watchful eye of Abu Dhabi’s ruler seems to have settled the issue in favour of Benazir. According to Pakistani media reports, reportedly Benazir agreed in principle to support another Presidential term for Musharraf and work towards mobilizing support at the grass roots level. No matter that Benazir has denied this.

Questionably, can a leader who is away from his/her people for almost a decade, do any magic? On two counts. One, sustain her hold over the masses. Two, can she shore up the dwindling popularity of General Musharraf.           

Already, Benazir’s political opponent Nawaz Sharif has declared his opposition to the working relationship between Benazir and Musharraf. He intends to return to Islamabad and start an agitation against the President. Plainly, one can expect street battles between the two rival groups.

The Lashkar-e-Toiba Chief Hafiz Saeed in a statement, published on Monday last (6 August) stated, “Unfortunately our rulers are making Pakistan’s armed forces to commit the same mistakes that they had committed in East Pakistan… the situation is becoming critical with every passing day”. In this context one may recall that the LeT was one of the original signatories to the declaration of the al Qaida in 1998 for the establishment of an International Islamic Front against the USA, Israel and their allies.

All this indicates that the Islamic radical groups are organizing themselves against President Musharraf’s policies. The Azzam al-Amriki video, currently staying in Pakistan, reiterated the earlier demand of the al-Qaida Chief Osama bin Laden that foreign forces should with draw from Muslim countries like Iraq and Pakistan. Recall, the Islamic radicals, have scrapped the peace agreement they signed in 2006 and in the last one month alone, more than 200 people have been killed and almost 400 injured in attacks by these groups. Clearly, they seem to be preparing themselves to fight Musharraf.

That apart, the US and its allies are mounting pressure on the General to further intensify the Pakistan Army attacks on the Islamic radicals. In fact, the US President George Bush called Musharraf on Sunday last (5 August), and unequivocally stated that US intelligence agencies had mounting evidence about the increased activity of the al-Qaida and the Taliban all along the Federally Administered Tribal Areas and in Baluchistan.  It is still not clear whether the US President talked in terms of extending further support to Musharraf linked to the action against the terrorists operating from Pakistan.

Be that as it may, Islamabad has renewed its efforts in cracking down on radical Islamic groups within the country. According to Pakistani media reports, the armed forces have begun attacks on militant safe houses in places like Waziristan. More. The US has also asked Pakistan to nab all the drug syndicate members like Dawood Ibrahim as they are providing finances for the al-Qaida to continue its operations.

Musharraf is in a quandary. On the one hand the external pressures are mounting and on the other hand the radicals are sharpening their attacks. Their leadership is today asking for badla (revenge) against the General for his pro-US tilt. Not only that. Adding to the confusion, the Opposition political parties are organizing themselves demanding the restoration of democracy. The reinstatement of the dismissed Chief Justice of the Supreme Court had added further momentum to the Opposition parties. Notwithstanding the fact, that parleys are on to restore some rapprochement between the judiciary and the President, things look dicey at this point.

Bluntly, one can identify four broad groups which are working at cross purposes in Pakistan today: First, the Armed Forces under Gen. Musharraf are trying desperately to keep their predominance in the polity. Second, the radical Islamic groups, once patronized by the Establishment in Islamabad are now being targeted by the army: and the former wants to reassert their position. Third, the civil society is asking for restoration of normal political activity. Fourth, the US feels that it has been led up the garden path all these years by Islamabad about the terrorists and other American adversaries who have found safe havens in Pakistan.

Each of these groups is trying to find means to capture power in Islamabad. The US is looking for an amenable Government in Islamabad which will meet its strategic goals. What will be the flash point to create mayhem in the streets of Pakistan is not known as yet. But many observers feel that the way things are happening in the country, that moment is not far.

The immediate question that arises is: How should India respond to these developments in Pakistan? And if a civil war like situation unfolds there, what are New Delhi’s options? The mandarins in South Block are sharply divided on the developments in Pakistan. One section argues that the armed forces in Pakistan are firmly entrenched in power; and if not Gen. Musharraf another General will take charge of the situation.

Another section avers that “Mr. Survival”, Gen. Musharraf, will somehow manage a deal with the political parties like the PPP and the PML and continue in power. The third group feels that the radical Islamic groups could usurp power from the Army, given the fact that they enjoy considerable amount of sympathy from the armed forces. A small group is of the view that another division of Pakistan seems to be imminent.

In the ultimate, whatever may be the outcome of the ongoing power tussle, a close monitoring of Pakistan is necessary. Intelligence must be strengthened to keep sharp vigil. ----- INFA

(Copyright India News and Feature Alliance)

Special Article

New Delhi, 6 August 2007

Growing Tiger Trade

TURN INDIA’s WILD INTO SAFE ZONE

By Radhakrishna Rao

The magnificent Indian tiger, who roamed the jungles of India for thousands of years as an unchallenged monarch, is today struggling for its very survival --of a distinct wildlife species!

Given the scenario of a depleting tiger population in the country, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has directed all States to immediately initiate a stringent plan of action aimed at strengthening institutional mechanisms in tiger reserves spread across the nation. He has driven home the point that a large number of frontline posts in the Department of Forest in several States are lying vacant and urged Chief Ministers to beef up protection measures in each tiger reserve with an increasing participation of the local community.

As it is, the scantily equipped and poorly-paid forest guards are either gunned down or bribed by the poaching syndicates, having links with the international smuggling gangs, Indeed, the isolated and least motivated forest guards are often afraid to fight both the poaching syndicates and timber mafia which in addition enjoy political patronage. An analysis of the tiger skin trade by many of the international wildlife conservation agencies reveals that the tribals inhabiting these tiger reserves too are at the receiving end of the international tiger trading mafia.

According to CITES (Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species), the flourishing underground international trade in tiger skin is characterized by the abject exploitation of the local communities, collusion and corruption of local level bureaucracy, violence towards local law enforcement agencies and the huge profits involved. Indeed, the decline of tiger population in India’s wild is as much due to poaching as due to the deteriorating habitat, resulting in the loss of prey base.

While India may boast about hosting over half of the total global tiger population, many reserves and sanctuaries across the country are witnessing a sharp decline in the numbers of the big cats. For instance, a recent study by the Dehra Dun-based Wildlife Institute of India (WII) says that over the last five years, the tiger population in the forest stretches of Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan has come down drastically.

The strength, in particular, of the big cats in sanctuaries such as Melghat, Panna, Kanha and Bandavgarh has dwindled. The WWI estimates point that India’s largest State Madhya Pradesh and Chattisgarh account for 290 tigers, while Maharastra has less than 100 tigers On the other hand, the highly fragmented stretches of the tourist-friendly Rajasthan  has only 32 big cats left in its famous Ranthmabore sanctuary with  Sariska tiger reserve being totally bereft of the big cats.

The picturesque and biologically diverse Sunderbans mangrove forests, shared by West Bengal and Bangladesh, are witnessing a change. Earlier, a trusted safe haven for the diminishing Royal Bengal tiger, the drying of fresh water sources has led to the beast moving across to mangrove stretches of Bangladesh.

In another significant development, the Comptroller and Auditor General CAG) of India has said that the estimate of the tiger population in Kalakad-Mundanthuria Tiger Reserve (KMTR) in Tamil Nadu was unrealistic and unscientific. The report makes it clear that the tiger census in this reserve, lying in the lap of the Western Ghats, has not been carried out as per the well-defined guidelines followed in tiger count.

Incidentally, KMTR is one of the 28 tiger reserves created as part of “Project Tiger” --the most ambitious and successful wildlife conservation project launched anywhere in the world. However, a field study by WWI says that KMTR was not biologically rich enough to support more than 15 tigers, while the 2005 census puts the tiger population in the reserve at 29.

Against this depressing and gloomy background of the tiger population in the country, the Corbett National Park shared by Uttar Pradesh and Uttaranchal, has recorded the presence of over 100 tigers. Meanwhile, the Karnataka has sought Rs.14,00-million for implementing the tiger conservation programmes in the four Project Tiger reserves of the State: Bandipur, Nagarhole, Bhadr and the recently added Anshi National  Park.

Meanwhile, lobbying by China to lift the ban on international trading in tiger skin and tiger body parts has come in for severe criticism and opposition   from conservationists and wildlife biologists across the world. Of course, India has made known its opposition to the Chinese lobbying. ”The tiger is under serious threat from poaching as well as from the loss of habitat over the last couple of decades. The ban on tiger trade should not be lifted as it will encourage poaching,” says Rajesh Gopal, Head of Project Tiger.

In a similar vein, Dr.Ullas Karanth, a well-known tiger biologist and a consultant with the New York based  Wildlife Conservation Society says, “lifting the ban will drive up demand, create new markets and also provide room for traders to mix  the illegally killed  tigers with legitimate farmed tigers. It is a bad idea all around”.

In fact, the massive disappearance of tigers from the Indian wild, including Sariska Tiger Reserve in Rajasthan has been attributed to the activities of the poaching syndicates specializing in smuggling of Tiger body parts from China and South East Asian countries. Clearly, trading in tiger skin and tiger body parts is a lucrative business, as these fetch fabulous returns to the poachers and their associates. In addition to China, countries such as Taiwan, Vietnam, Thailand and Singapore also consumer tiger parts

Wildlife biologists in the country rue the fact that the rapid and all-around expansion of agriculture and human settlements into tiger territory are depriving this beautiful beast of its “space and prey base”. Similarly, mining activities and dam construction, other than laying of roads for transportation, is taking a heavy toll on the tiger habitats,

As it is, the spatial range of tigers in India has shrunk by nearly 5 per cent over the last five decades and this has led to a severe reduction in the prey base of the animal, making its survival an uphill task.

According to sources in Wildlife Protection Society of India (WPSI), while there is a very small demand for either bones or skins of tiger within India, the growing Chinese demand for tiger parts continues to be the major cause for poaching. However, the ongoing economic boom in India has brought in its wake a growing demand for tiger skin.

Indeed, with a single tiger fetching over Rs 30,0000 in the international market, the task of conserving the big cats in the country has become all the more challenging. However, Indian conservationists and wildlife biologists are optimistic of turning India’s wild into a safe zone for the disappearing tiger.---INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)

PAKISTAN SPECIAL

New Delhi, 15 November 2007

Civil War In Pakistan

WHO CONTROLS THE NUKES?

By Sreedhar

The conflicting reports coming from Pakistan indicate that a civil war like situation has erupted in the country. The street demonstrations by anti-Musharraf forces have already created mayhem across Pakistan. In principal cities like Karachi, Lahore and Peshawar there is a total breakdown of law and order. The police and the paramilitary forces are having a tough time in confronting the unruly mobs.

Whether these demonstrations are organized by the Pakistan People’s Party, the young lawyers of the Bar Council of Pakistan or some other political party is not clear as yet. The developments since November 3 clearly indicate that the opposition to President Musharraf is increasing but is still unorganised.

In these circumstances, Gen. Musharraf has very few options other than calling the Armed Forces to meet the challenge to his rule by his opponents. The crucial question today: To what extent are the Armed Forces willing to fight against their own people?

More so against the background, that about 25 per cent of the Pakistani Armed Forces are from the North West Frontier Province (NWFP) and another 10-15 per cent are from Baluchistan, according to Western estimates. The officers and men from these two provinces, deployed to meet the challenge posed by the opposition to Gen Musharraf’s regime, may not be willing to fight against their own people.

Another variable is the large scale presence of the Pasthuns and Baluchis who are governed by tribal loyalties. Such groups normally will not fight against their own kith and kin for no reason or rhyme. And the ‘problem provinces’ for both the Musharraf regime and the international community are the NWPF and Baluchistan, both bordering Afghanistan.

According to one assessment by the Western intelligence agencies it is highly unlikely that the Pasthun and Baluch soldiers will fight against their own tribesmen. Nor will they allow Punjabi soldiers to take any action against the opponents of Gen Musharraf’s regime in these provinces. The large scale surrender of the police, paramilitary forces and even the army to radical groups in the two provinces and adjoining areas indicate that things are not going smoothly.

Such a situation is making many observers conclude that the command and control culture of the Pakistani Armed Forces is on the verge of a breakdown.

How the Army High Command will react to this new situation is anybody’s guess. If we go by past precedence, the Army High Command quickly intervened and replaced the leadership. Whether such a situation can be repeated now seems to be highly improbable. Given that the fractured Pakistani Armed Forces already discredited by the people, are on the defensive. Therefore, it is highly doubtful that a bloodless coup can replace Gen Musharraf.

In this unfolding complex situation there is considerable amount of anxiety about the future of the nuclear weapons under the Pakistani Armed Forces custody. Even when the Armed Forces were united and governed by the command culture system, people like A.Q. Khan ran their own clandestine nuclear proliferation network and amassed wealth beyond their means. And some reports say even today the network is following.   

The radical Islamic groups articulated the idea of Islamic bomb to propagate the radical Islamic ideology. In the process, they managed to influence a large number of men in uniform to their cause. In the late 1990s, there were even reports that the Pakistani nuclear scientists had met people like Osama Bin Laden and Mullah Umar on a number of occasions and tried to involve them in a nuclear weapon proliferation network.

Recent reports from Pakistan state that the Pasthun and Baluch-origin Pakistani Armed Forces have expressed their support to the cause of the al-Qaeeda and Taliban type of governance. Significantly, in this extraordinary situation it needs to be probed as to who has the complete control of nuclear weapons in Pakistan.  

Today, even the western strategic community is concerned about this aspect. All we know is that when the Pakistani nuclear weapons programme got underway in the 1980s, the US closely followed it. However, it refused to bring any pressure on Pakistan to discontinue its nuclear programme, as Washington is doing today against Iran. Apparently the Cold War politics and Pakistan’s relevance in the Cold War games made the US overlook Islamabad’s nuclear programme.

This in no way gives an answer to the current crisis of who owns the nuclear weapons in Pakistan. One can safely assume that the leadership of the radical Islamic groups will be making subtle moves to influence the key persons in the Pakistani nuclear establishment to their side. One can also assume that sufficient incentives, material or ideological will be offered to these key persons of the nuclear establishment.

The Pakistani nuclear establishment has shown their vulnerability to such moves in the past. Even if they are not in a position to provide a nuclear weapon to the radical Islamic groups, they can certainly provide access to ‘dirty weapons’ (enriched uranium) to use in public places. That will give enough psychological advantage to the radical Islamic groups over their adversaries.

In these circumstances, the international strategic community is caught with the worst case scenario of nuclear terrorism without any solution in sight. All that we have is unconfirmed reports from Washington stating that they have managed to lay their hands on Pakistan’s nuclear weapons. No one is sure to what extent the US had succeeded in this exercise.

If one believes that free and fair elections in Pakistan will resolve all questions, this is not correct. The last free and fair elections in Pakistan in 2002 saw radical Islamic groups gaining strength in the NWFP and Baluchistan. Since then, both these provinces have become safe havens for the al-Qaeeda and Taliban who are trying to spread their influence in adjacent Afghanistan. In fact, all the Karzai Government’s troubles in Kabul are from Pakistan’s NWFP and Baluchistan provinces.

In sum, if there are free and fair elections in January 2008, as been promised by Gen. Musharraf, there is no guarantee that the radical Islamic groups will not improve their position further in Pakistan’s polity. In such an eventuality, the status of nuclear weapons there will get further complicated. ----- INFA

(Copyright India News & Feature Alliance)

Special Article

New Delhi , 5 April 2007 

Towards Forward Move?

CHANGING ATMOSPHERICS IN SAARC

By Dr. Chintamani Mahapatra

School of International Studies, JNU

The fourteenth SAARC summit in New Delhi this week took place in the midst of serious ongoing crisis in the region as well as in the extended neighbourhood of South Asia. Pakistan and Sri Lanka have been witnessing the menacing growth of terrorist activities. Bangladesh, Maldives and Nepal are not very stable politically. Afghanistan has been experiencing a painful resurgence of the Taliban.

In the extended neighbourhood, Iran faces the prospect of increased sanctions in view of its nuclear policy. Iraq is in deep crisis with rising tide of violence and murders. Myanmar continues to be under the military rule and Thailand has joined the group of Asian countries with military dominance, despite the expanding wave of democracy in the world in the post-Cold War era.

The good news is, however, intensification of Indo-Pakistan peace process, which began in 2003, moved through several ups and downs and now appears to be steadier than ever. Afghanistan has entered the regional grouping as a full member raising the number of SAARC countries to eight. Iran showed interest in becoming an observer of SAARC and the member-countries have unanimous views on according this status to Iran. The United States, Japan, South Korea and China attended the New Delhi SAARC summit for the first time as Observers.

The declaration at the end of the summit is bound to have a lasting impact on economic cooperation and better understanding among the member-countries. The members have agreed to set up a SAARC Food Bank and resolved to take steps to enhance trade and other forms of economic development. These include services in the ambit of the South Asia Free Trade Agreement (SAFTA), expenditure on investment promotion and protection agreement and working together towards energy security.  Also, an agreement to establish a South Asian University has been signed and the South Asian Development Fund made operationalised with an initial corpus of $300 million.

All these have created a novel atmosphere in the region raising the importance of SAARC into new heights. For long SAARC was either ignored, or bypassed or taken lightly by the international community. But today, the membership of this body has expanded and the new Observers are none other than the global superpower, the United States, the Asian superpower, China and the mighty economic Asian powerhouses, such as Japan and South Korea. The resource rich Iran too has sought an Observer status.

Two factors are largely responsible for these positive developments in SAARC. The first factor is unprecedented growth in the Indian economy. Ever since the current Indian Prime Minister launched a mini-economic revolution in 1991 in his capacity as the Finance Minister, there is no going back on the country’s economic growth. India could very well have sustained the international pressures in the wake of the 1998 nuclear tests and the Indian economy grew despite global recession, Asian financial melt down and sanctions imposed by the United States, Japan, Australia and many other countries.

When the UPA came to power, there were apprehensions around the globe that the Indian economic reform would no longer sustain itself, since there is a Government in New Delhi that could nor function without taking dictates from the Left leaning political parties of India. Such apprehensions were truly misplaced. The UPA Government has carried forward the Indian economic reforms and helped the economy grow to unprecedented levels.

The Indian success undoubtedly has had a positive impact in the SAARC region as well. As the traders and investors from the developed world made an economic pilgrimage to India and India’s economic profile enhanced, other SAARC members also began to push their respective reform agendas. The geographical proximity that had generated a fear among the neighbours about Indian intensions gave way to positive images about a growing India. If India could do business with China, an erstwhile enemy, why not with the immediate neighbours?

Like the industrially advanced nations of the world, even India’s smaller neighbours appear to have been developing a stake in the growing markets of India. In fact, the Indian Prime Minister’s bold decision to allow some SAARC nations duty free access to Indian market is a welcome step and a constructive policy, which certainly will enhance India’s image in the SAARC and assist economic growth in the larger region. In his very opening statement, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh announced that “India is ready to accept asymmetrical  responsibilities, opening its markets to its South Asian neighbours without insisting on reciprocity.” This is a policy that is quite different from free trade agreements. It will benefit the neighbours economically and will enable India to erect a secured and peaceful neighbourhood.

The second most important factor that has generated positive energy in the SAARC is Indo-Pakistan peace process. Many times in the past, New Delhi and Islamabad began a peace process and observed the death of the process in the hands of minor incidents or misperceptions. But the current peace process is not only the longest, but also has weathered several challenges that could have easily derailed it. Once there is a halt to the process, it normally takes very long time and additional efforts to restart it. Even if it is restarted, the fear of possible derailment continues to hunt.

The situation has drastically changed in the relations between the two South Asian superpowers. The nuclear weapons have put in place a structure of deterrence. Impossibility of total war makes it imperative for both India and Pakistan that only détente could protect their respective national interests. It could have been a cold peace as well. But the peace process has prevented that. The confidence-building measures have created a complex inter-dependence, which is at the nascent stage right now but would begin to give dividends, if the current peace could be prolonged a little more.

The beginning of a complex inter-dependence is reflected in the statement made by Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz. He expressed his happiness that disputes have been acknowledged by the parties and have been discussed by officials and that the “trust deficit” between the two countries has been reduced. Positively put, this remark suggests that there is more mutual confidence between Indians and Pakistanis than ever before in the history of bilateral relations.

However, only a beginning has been made to take off the SAARC to higher plains of cooperative structure. This modest beginning need to be celebrated, but a cautious optimism should be adopted to face the continuing and future challenges. South Asians need to be made aware of the fact that their future lies in cooperation and that conflict could only keep the region in a primitive stage in this age of rapid globalization and technological advancements.---INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)